The history of futurology is not encouraging. Most “predictions” by futurists are more akin to prophecies that reveal more about personality, preoccupations and capacity for wish-fulfillment of the author than the future they purport to describe.
In any case, predicting the future behaviour of self-reflexive agents is not like predicting the behaviour of non-intelligent physical systems. Some predictions are self-fulfilling; other predictions are self-stultifying; and the public forecasts of politicians, social scientists, singularitarians and transhumanists should all be viewed in this light."
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