Is Humanity Accelerating Towards… Apocalypse? or Utopia?: "Will the future provide us with a genetically preprogrammed blissful paradise, or a global catastrophe? Will there be cessation of all suffering, or annihilation of all sentient life?
The history of futurology is not encouraging. Most “predictions” by futurists are more akin to prophecies that reveal more about personality, preoccupations and capacity for wish-fulfillment of the author than the future they purport to describe.
In any case, predicting the future behaviour of self-reflexive agents is not like predicting the behaviour of non-intelligent physical systems. Some predictions are self-fulfilling; other predictions are self-stultifying; and the public forecasts of politicians, social scientists, singularitarians and transhumanists should all be viewed in this light."
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